After one week we officially have some small sample to ethically (grossly) extrapolate across the whole season.

For today lets set aside reality and find reasons for concern and reasons for optimism for every team in baseball — and make some predictions about floor and ceiling while we’re at it.

At the end of the season we will come back and grade these piece.

Miami Marlins (5-1) // Rockies 3-0, White Sox 2-1

Reason for Optimism:

Sandy Alcantara is so back. CG really makes you forget what he went through last year, and it’s not hard to envision what he was circa 2023.

And there’s been an early flash by Owen Caissie

Reason for Concern:

I will not be fooled by Rockies and White Sox games, I will not be fooled by Rockies and White Sox games, I will not be fooled by Rockies and White Sox games, I will not be fooled by Rockies and White Sox games, I will not be fooled by Rockies and White Sox games,I will not be fooled by Rockies and White Sox games, I will not be fooled by Rockies and White Sox games

I ain’t falling for this.

Ceiling: 78 wins

Floor: I’m not trying to be an asshole on my first write up

Atlanta Braves (5-2) // Royals 2-1, A’s 3-0, DBacks 1-0

Reason for Optimism:

They’re putting up runs without Ronald Acuna

Drake Baldwin has picked up where he left off, and is quite possibly the best hitting catcher in baseball. Dom Smith is actually playing a more than competent DH, and partnered with Mike Yastrzemski they added two quality bottom 3rd of the lineup bats.

And I haven’t even needed to mention Olson, Riley, Harris, or Albies. Feeling like 21??

Reason for Concern:

How many injuries can a rotation sustain before it simply has to fall apart? Because the Braves are really testing that figure.

Ceiling: I don’t trust the health of their pitching to say anything beyond an NLCS (but how awesome is Chris Sale?)

Floor: It’s unfair to fall back on the injury bug but they aren’t a playoff lock in my eyes.

Philadelphia Phillies (3-3) // Rangers 1-2, Nationals 2-1

Reason for Optimism:

Crawford and Garcia look like they can provide more than Kepler and Castellanos could.

The superstars aren't hitting yet, but despite an obviously top of the line 1-5, this team needed something more out of 6-9 than they got last season if they want to win a World Series.

Painter is also looking like the guy we’ve heard of for so long, which alleviates the pain of waiting for Wheeler’s return.

Reason for Concern:

While Duran seems to have solved their closer issue, the rest of that bullpen is not the caliber of a World Series winning team right now

Ceiling: World Series Contender if they add a bullpen arm or two.

Floor: NL Wildcard spot

Washington Nationals (3-3) // Cubs 2-1, Phillies 1-2

Reason for Optimism:

Joey Wiemer is the best hitter in baseball — but more importantly Brady House is elevating his play at the dish. They spent a lot of draft capital there and they desperately need SOMEONE from their big investment pool pan out.

Cade Cavalli also is showing signs of why I loved him when I saw him pitch in Greensboro in 2021. He’s a powerful guy with big stuff but he’s growing into a professional this year.

Reason for Concern:

It’s got to be morally debilatating to see Crews, Wood, Keibert, Abrams, and Hassell struggle to open the season or even make the roster (not to mention Gore departure)

I don’t see a lot of positive momentum anywhere for this club right now

Ceiling: 80 wins

Floor: Things fall apart and they’re drafting top 5 again.

New York Mets (3-4) // Pirates 2-1, Cardinals 1-2, Giants 0-1

Reason for Optimism:

I’ve written before, there’s a chance we look back in October and say their 6-7-8-9 hitters were the best in baseball (Baty-Semien-Benge-Alvarez)

And it certainly helps when that group can support itself but then also set the table for Lindor and Soto.

Reason for Concern:

Bo Bichette simply has to scare you right now. This isn’t struggling like he’s ever experienced, and due to the media market you have to wonder at what point will it start to snowball? This team doesn’t work without him.

Also — will Mendoza ever stop forcing Dicky Lovelady into leverage situations? FFS please use someone else.

Ceiling: This team can win the World Series

Floor: I don’t think there is a world they miss the postseason… but I don’t think I’d bet big money on that.

Milwaukee Brewers (5-1) // White Sox 3-0, Rays 2-1

Reason for Optimism:

No matter who leaves the org they find someone cheap to fill the spot who is arguably better than the departure

Maybe a slight exaggeration as Peralta is having success, but Kyle Harrison was the most obvious “Brewers will fix him” guy of all time. They moved Durbin at the perfect time. Now they’ve got multiple top prospects pushing to enter the fray.

It’s unfair for an org to be this well run.

Reason for Concern:

I really don’t have any. I think Rengifo/Hamilton probably wasn’t the answer at 3B.

But outside of just somewhat of a lack of superstar laden lineup in a League with the Dodgers and Phillies nothing jumps out as red flag-y here.

Ceiling: Pushing the Dodgers to the brink in the NLCS after winning the Central

Floor: Maybe their lack of superstars bites them and they’re only an unexciting 85 win team.

St Louis Cardinals (4-2) // Rays 2-1, Mets 2-1

Reason for Optimism:

This team just feels like the 2007/2011 teams with how much moxie they are playing with

It’s a lineup designed to have 9 difficult outs because it doesn’t have that one superstar

But JJ Wetherholt’s opening week was quite exciting and shows a ton of promise. And dare I say Jordan Walker might finally be showing more than flashes too?

Reason for Concern:

This team doesn’t have Albert Pujols… or Matt Holliday… or Lance Berkman… or…

You get the point. At some point a lack of Jimmy’s and Joe’s takes over

Ceiling: The NL Central is good but is any team great? I can see a world where it only take 85 wins to take it and I think there’s a low low chance they are the only one to do that

Floor: Last in the division is on the table, too

Pittsburgh Pirates (3-3) // Mets 1-2, Reds 2-1

Reason for Optimism:

Ryan O’Hearn and Brandon Lowe were EXACTLY as advertised

They give professional At-Bats — which can’t be said for anyone on last years club and it takes a ton of pressure off of Cruz and Reynolds.

This team will only go as far as their hitters will take them and with an actual dangerous top 4 — with #1 prospect Konnor Griffin debuting this week — they can maybe finally return to a postseason and win their first playoff series since 1979.

Reason for Concern:

While O’Hearn and Lowe have been good, Ozuna has not. And he introduced a serious problem in that this team is made up of about 6 DH’s in a world where you only get 1. This may genuinely be the worst defensive team in baseball, and the pitching staff is talented but they’re certainly not elevating them enough to overcome horrendous defense.

This bullpen also scares me but one thing at a time.

Ceiling: This team can win a playoff series… dare I say two?

Floor: Maybe they just can’t hit enough, the pitching doesn’t come together and they just don’t have the legs for 162. They can finish last here.

Cincinnati Reds (3-3) // Red Sox 2-1, Pirates 1-2

Reason for Optimism:

Elly De La Cruz - Sal Stewart - Eugenio Suarez could be the most underrated 3-4-5 in baseball. They are dynamic, electric, and potent. Stewart is the only one at top form right now but the other two are providing juice until they sort out the rest.

Not to mention that even without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, the rotation still is deep with quality arms and youngsters with upside.

Reason for Concern:

The non 3-4-5 parts of this lineup have been nothing short of disastrous. No hitter outside the three I’ve mentioned is even hitting above the Mendoza Line.

KeBryan Hayes was a moronic contract to take on for a small market team. The 3 outfielders with the most Plate Appearances have a batting average of .150… if you ADD THEM ALL TOGETHER (.091, .059, .000)

Christ.

Ceiling: This team can make a playoff run, maybe even to the NLCS

Floor: This team can finish last in the NL Central

Chicago Cubs (3-3) // Nationals 1-2, Angels 2-1

Reason for Optimism:

Horton and Cabrera continue to look the part, and that Rotations needs them to. Boyd and Imanaga are good for the 162, but I worry about them in the postseason.

Horton and Cabrera provide them a higher ceiling to win the important games once they get there.

Reason for Concern:

The lineup isn’t hitting YET but that’s not an actual concern of mine. It’s 9 really solid hitters and it will most likely sort itself

But that Bullpen is a ticking time bomb. You don’t win in October with that nastiness. And you have to wonder how the Cubs didn’t address it in the offseason beyond Phil Maton and Hoby Milner

Ceiling: Win the division, not get swept by the Dodgers in the DS

Floor: I won’t continue to be a broken record. I don’t think this team finishes last in the Central, but maybe there’s a 4th place in one of the left tail outcomes.

Los Angeles Dodgers (4-2) // DBacks 3-0, Guardians 1-2

Reason for Optimism:

Do you really need reason for optimism as a 2 time defending champion?

Reason for Concern:

Oh no, my steak is too juicy, and my lobster is too buttery.

Fuck off.

Ceiling: Three Peat

Floor: Lose in the World Series going for said 3-peat

Arizona Diamondbacks (3-3) // Dodgers 0-3, Tigers 3-0

Reason for Optimism:

You don’t play the Dodgers every series?

But for real Corbin Carroll’s speedy recovery and overcoming the hamate bone injury is nothing short of miraculous, and he may be due for his best season yet if this pace is anywhere close to what he can put together for 162.

Reason for Concern:

This pitching staff is just full of JAG after JAG (just a guy)

Gallen couldn’t find a long term deal in the most pitcher friendly off-season in a long time. And even I can’t buy into Michael Soroka as a long term option.

Ceiling: You won’t win the division but maybe you can get in the ring with the dodgers one last time in the NLCS

Floor: Maybe this pitching staff is too pedestrian and they just finish right around 80 wins.

San Francisco Giants (3-4) // Yankees 0-3, Padres 2-1, Mets 1-0

Reason for Optimism:

The team is going to mirror it’s head coach. They’re pesky, unassuming, but perhaps dangerous. It feels like a college team and that’s probably on purpose.

Nobody is really hitting yet but they’ve won 4 games in spite of that.

Reason for Concern:

This team is going to mirror it’s head coach. They’re unproven, abrasive, and possibly in over their heads. It feels like a college team and unfortunately that was on purpose

Ceiling: Sneak into the playoffs

Floor: Bottom 5 team in baseball

San Diego Padres (2-4) // Tigers 1-2, Giants 1-2

Reason for Optimism:

This bullpen FUCKS. Being able to shorten a game like they can is a cheat code long term, and especially if they manage to make the postseason

PLUS Ramon Laureano just continues to hit. Good for him and great for them!

Reason for Concern:

You can’t trot out Walker Buehler and German Marquez twice every week and expect to be taken seriously as a team

The lineup simply isn’t good enough to overcome that on a nightly basis and win a lot of games

Ceiling: Postseason push where your 4th and 5th starters don’t matter.

Floor: Missing the playoffs is absolutely on the table when you are basically punting 40% of your starts for the first half of the year

Colorado Rockies (2-4) // Marlines 0-3, Blue Jays 2-1

Reason for Optimism:

I’m really sorry guys. I tried here. I looked A LOT.

The best I’ve got is that Coors Field seems awesome and you guys get to enjoy it 81 times per year. And maybe the Tovar and Goodman trades can net you a building block or two.

Reason for Concern:

The Rockies can’t pick in the lottery in the draft when they’re assuredly going to lose 90+ games

Ceiling: This team could finish 4th if the Giants go full dumpster fire

Floor: * Sad Rock noises *