After one week we officially have some small sample to ethically (grossly) extrapolate across the whole season.

For today lets set aside reality and find reasons for concern and reasons for optimism for every team in baseball — and make some predictions about floor and ceiling while we’re at it.

At the end of the season we will come back and grade these piece.

New York Yankees (5-1) // Giants 3-0, Mariners 2-1

Reason for Optimism:

The Pitching Staff is the best it’s been since 2009 — Fried and Schlittler at the top are DICING in the early goings. Both could make a case for Cy Young if they can maintain even half of this pace for the full season. Cole isn’t even healthy yet, nor Rodon. Weathers’ stuff is nasty and the bullpen has multiple closer level arms to hold it down.

Reason for Concern:

I’m not quite sure there is one right now. MAYBE that Trent Grisham was the wrong call for their Center Field spot? Maybe Judge is letting the WBC collapse get to his head?

Hard not to buy into what this club could be

Ceiling: World Series Champions of bust

Floor: Honestly it’s ALCS unless they run into the Tigers in the DS

Toronto Blue Jays (4-2) // A’s 3-0, Rockies 1-2

Reason for Optimism:

Their offseason adds were PERFECT.

Kaz Okamoto was the exact piece that this lineup need, Dylan Cease is primed to lead the rotation’s 2 headed monster, and Jesus Sanchez was a sneaky great add to bolster the OF depth.

Reason for Concern:

I’m not too sure I’m a believer in the pitching staff after the top 2 arms.

I can get behind Cease and Gausman — but I don’t trust Scherzer, Lauer, and the unfortunately injured Ponce to get through this season, or more importantly the postseason like I do other staffs. And I think the bullpen is a ticking time bomb

Ceiling: World Series Appearance — but think you missed your 1 shot.

Floor: 4th in AL East, no playoffs

Baltimore Orioles (3-3) // Twins 2-1, Rangers 1-2

Reason for Optimism:

The bounce back Adley Rutshcman in the early going. This team will go as far as the young core takes them. Pete and Ward were good adds, but Henderson, Rutschman, Cowser, and eventually Westburg will drive this bus. Not all are clicking right now — but Adley not being a bottom 10 catcher in the sport will go a long way to returning this team to a genuine contender. 3 doubles an 3 walks in the early going is a good start.

Reason for Concern:

The other pieces of that young core are not pulling their weight. Henderson looked certifiably lost in the first series. He woke up a bit in the first two of the Rangers series but then cashed in a stinker on get-away day. Mayo is proving not to be a big league ready player in Westburg’s stead, Basallo is running into the “sophomore” slump, and it doesn’t sound like Westburg will be ready any time soon.

Ceiling: Possible ALCS run

Floor: 4th in AL East, no playoffs

Tampa Bay Rays (2-4) // Cardinals 1-2, Brewers 1-2

Reason for Optimism:

Maybe this team can hit better than anyone thought they could. Through 2 series they have FOUR players with an OPS over 1.000, and a 5th at .931

Yandy Diaz has been transcendent (1.127), Simpson has been an On-Base machine (1.093), DeLuca has come on strong (1.043), Aranda is building on an All-Star season (1.023), and even Fortes is getting into the mix (.931)

If that group - who have all played in all 6 contests - can be joined by Junior Caminero? Then maybe this team can be sneaky.

Reason for Concern:

8, 4, 3, 0, 3, 6 — what do these numbers mean? Disaster

That’s the best way to describe this Rays bullpen. 8, 4, 3, 0, 3, 6 are the number of runs given up by the relievers in each game of this young season.

You simply cannot win with this bunch in its current form.

Ceiling: sneak into the postseason

Floor: Bottom 5 team in baseball

Boston Red Sox (1-5) // Reds 1-2, Astros 0-3

Reason for Optimism:

Wilyer Abreu is AWESOME. He continues to grow into an annual 3+ Win player and I think if given the chance with enough bats he can become a 4 or 5 win guy for them.

Reason for Concern:

I’m going with 2 for this team because it deserves it

Ceiling: This is still a playoff team if they wake the fuck up

Floor: This team can also be bottom 5 in baseball if they don’t.

Kansas City Royals (3-2) // Braves 1-2, Twins 2-0

Reason for Optimism:

The 2nd tier of hitters are emerging in a way that can lead me to believe this team is more than Witt, Passquatch, and Salvy (when they wake up)

Caglianone is looking ready to take the next step with a .938 OPS. Maikel Garcia (.804) is taking professional ABs again so last year wasn’t an aberration. Isbel has 8 hits in his 14 AB’s. There’s growing confidence in that group that can definitely win this division.

Reason for Concern:

Something you’ll find consistently in this division is the offseason was a major let down for this group.

The Royals had made solid moves the last few off-seasons, but then inexplicably they decided 82-80 was fine and their big offseason addition was… Isaac Collins?

It’s hard to believe in a major improvement for this team when it’s hopes and dreams lie strictly on internal improvement.

Through their first 5 the Royals have the 2nd worst OPS in baseball at .548. And I fear that might continue

Ceiling: They have the pitching and enough juice in the lineup to win a playoff series

Floor: .500 ball club

Cleveland Guardians (4-3) // Mariners 2-2, Dodgers 2-1

Reason for Optimism:

Chase MF DeLauter. What a beast that man has been in the early goings. If he can be a mainstay ahead of JRam then this team has the best 1-2-3 in the division bar none.

Reason for Concern:

How do we trust a lineup that didn’t even attempt to get better in the off-season? Last years 28th ranked scoring offense made one move of any note. Rhys Hoskins…

If you want to be anything more than the tallest midget (the AL Central Champion) you have to try a little harder than this.

Ceiling: This team can win the Central… but that might be it.

Floor: This team should win the Central but might not have the horses to do it

Detroit Tigers (2-4) // Padres 2-1, DBacks 0-3

Reason for Optimism:

Having the best 1-2 punch of any starting rotation in baseball means you can win it all with mediocre offense. And while the Tiger’s offense has been just that in the early goings, Skubal and Framber have been as advertised. And even Mize is pitching up to billing now.

Reason for Concern:

I mentioned the mediocre hitting. What I haven’t yet is this clusterfuck of a bullpen.

Kenley Jansen is not an effective closer in the big 2-6. Will Vest has lost what made him special for a time and he’s one of 3 players with ERA+ worse than 42(!!)

They desperately need Kyle Finnegan to play at his best self pretty much every night

Ceiling: It might be psychotic to say… but the front line starters can win you a world series if you add relievers before the deadline

Floor: 3rd in Central, no playoffs — This bullpen can bring them down if they let it

Minnesota Twins (1-4) // Orioles 1-2, Royals 0-2

Reason for Optimism:

The offense can’t be much worse? I guess that is optimism? They are bottom 5 in total bases but perhaps that is new manager Derek Shelton trying to find the right pieces?

Sorry Twins fans.

Reason for Concern:

Well, the offense can’t get much worse… except maybe they do? Royce Lewis is propping up this offense in the very small sample. But Buxton, Keaschall, Wallner and the cast of characters that make up the lineup are all scuffling early and it’s not even a product of high strikeouts. It’s softly hit balls and an overall lack of offensive identity.

Ceiling: 4th in the Central. This is not a playoff team. 75 wins?

Floor: the White Sox in the rearview mirror are closer than they appear

Chicago White Sox (1-5) // Brewers 0-3, Marlins 1-2

Reason for Optimism:

Murakami has been as advertised and FAR more. The approach has quelled some extremely high K fears early on, the power has come over, and he is anchoring this young lineup very well

Reason for Concern:

We all know this team isn’t good. There’s not enough around Muni and the best of the young hitters are still pretty far away

But perhaps worse is that the pitching staff, not great to begin with, is taking a step back here early on. And I’m not positive it has the pieces to recover. The reinforcement arms are coming soon but I’m not quite a believer in them as of right now.

Ceiling: They can pass the Twins for 4th in the central if the pitching finds its level

Floor: Roch Cholowsky is awesome

Houston Astros (5-2) // Angels 2-2, Red Sox 3-0

Reason for Optimism:

This team HITS. Yordan is back and better than ever, Altuve looks rejuvenated, Walker has bounced back, Correa looks healthy, and even Cam Smith is blossoming into the best version of himself.

They can and probably should finish top 5 in runs scored.

Reason for Concern:

I am not a believer in this pitching staff and the first time through the order has not gone a long way to change my mind.

Hunter Brown is the bonafide ace. He looks the part. But the next 4 starters are major questions marks. Imai was grossly inefficient in his first start (and his last MiLB exhibition), Javier got slapped around, Burrows was NOT sharp (and has durability concerns)… the lone bright spot was McCullers and is it possible to trust his health or really even his stuff long term?

I don’t buy it at present.

Ceiling: This is a World Series Contender in theory but I don’t put them in the top tier right now — perhaps the 2nd either

Floor: I suppose they can miss the postseason? But I think their floor is probably an AL Wild Card appearance.

Texas Rangers (4-2) // Phillies 2-1, Orioles 2-1

Reason for Optimism:

This team has definitely looked the part against two presumptive playoff teams.

They have 5 hitters with .900 or better OPS and Seager is absolutely doing his part for this team. The Nimmo trade has been great so far. And even in Wyatt Langford’s struggles he’s hitting the ball hard, swing is strong, and I trust his defense will elevate him until the bat comes around.

The pitching is unspectacular but they’re a “get the job done” bunch and they’re doing it.

Reason for Concern:

I am worried about the pitching staff. It’s hard to trust this group.

deGrom’s health is already a little sketchy here early and Eovaldi is showing his age big time with 2 horrendous starts to open the year. Leiter had a solid first start, but I have overall concerns that his underlying’s were worse than his top line numbers.

The bullpen is not my favorite bunch either. No proven closer and even some of the innings donkeys who will be their 65+ appearance guys leave a lot to be desired.

Can the sum of the parts be enough here?

Ceiling: ALCS appearance is on the table

Floor: 4th in AL West. This is a wide range of outcome team

Los Angeles Angels (3-4) // 2-2 Astros, Cubs 1-2

Reason for Optimism:

This start itself has to have you buzzing. They finally look like a big league team — something that has alluded them for a while

The Mike Trout renaissance is the best part of this early season and God willing it’s no mirage. And I think there’s fun pieces on the offense elsewhere too.

Reason for Concern:

Jose Soriano is a budding ace. But 2-5?? YIKES. Detmers has a prayer but the other 3 are loooong shots.

Pair that disaster of a rotation with what might be the league’s worst defense? That is a powder keg.

The Angels will only take a step forward towards relevance when they solve these glaring holes.

Ceiling: Eclipsing .500

Floor: Back to the basement in the AL West

Seattle Mariners (3-4) // Guardians 2-2, Yankees 1-2

Reason for Optimism:

This rotation just keeps humming along business as usual. It’s the best 1-5 there is bar none. Paired with a STRONG bullpen — perhaps baseball’s best — then you will be in every game all season long.

They also paid up to improve the offense, which can’t be said for a majority of their American League peers.

Reason for Concern:

The signs of regression are pretty aggressive right now for Raleigh and Naylor, which simply can’t happen if this team is to make a push. This is a competitive division and they can’t afford not have these two mainstays performing. Especially when JRod is struggling too.

Ceiling: World Series Champions

Floor: 3rd in the West if the offense doesn’t wake up … possibly missing the postseason entirely

Sacramento A’s (1-5) // Blue Jays 0-3, Braves 1-2

Reason for Optimism:

Shea Bangeliers. Leading the big leagues in home runs is possibly an inevitability the way this guy is going right now.

He is trying to single-handedly drive this bus right now. But there’s still 6 other legit hitters in this lineup who will probably positively regress

Reason for Concern:

The rest of the roster unfortunately is popping red flags right now

Wilson, Kurtz, and Soderstrom are having 2nd season slumps, Rooker has started slow and McNeil hasn’t really been the veteran presence that was promised.

Coupled with a pretty mediocre rotation and a Mason Miller-less bullpen and this season might not have the upside some prognosticators thought.

Ceiling: This lineup can win a playoff series like a Wild Card.

Floor: It’s not CRAZY to think this team finishes last in the American League West if the kids don’t wake up.