Fake or For Real?
I wanted to take a peak under the hood of the 3 hottest players in the sport right now. The candidates for the biggest breakout players as of April 12th. To give some thoughts on if they are “Fake” — too good to be true, or “For Real” — it’s happening.
Case #1 Jose Soriano
Soriano is the best story in the game right now, on Sunday he put up another absolute gem — 7 shutout Innings with 10 punchies in a 9-6 win over the Reds.
He’s entering into exclusive territory:
So, is this the real thing?
In the past, the big bugaboo for Soriano was the walks. In the past 2 seasons he was 27th and 13th percentile in Walk Rate? Early on in ‘26? 60th Percentile.
He’s throwing hard, he’s got 5 distinct pitch shapes, and he’s throwing them for strikes.
The only thing that might slow him down?
He still is giving up some louder contract. Only 28th percentile in barrel rate, but it’s mostly been on the ground with an exceptional 98th percentile Ground Ball rate.
As long as he effectively keeps the ball out of the air?
He’s for real
Case #2 Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker once again left the yard in Sunday’s 9-3 loss to the Red Sox, that bringing his total to a Major League leading 7 HR on the young season.
He’s putting up an INSANE stat-line right now, batting .327 with a 1.038 OPS
But is it for real?
I have my doubts.
He’s been a freak of nature. 96th or high percentile in basically every stat: xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velo, Barrel and Hard Hit %, and bat speed.
So what has me so apprehensive? The approach. He’s a career 33% chase man, and even here in the best stretch of his career he’s chasing at an above league average rate (vs L5 years). After an early surge in Meatball Swing % he’s creeping back down over the last week. He’s whiffing 31.7% of the time (23rd Percentile) and still striking out A TON (18th Percentile).
The career .240 hitter is almost certainly going to regress to the mean soon.
He’s a Fake.
Case #3 Oneil Cruz
Cruz and Walker share a ton of similarities in their hitter profiles. It is LOUD contact and high variance in results.
Cruz, like Walker, whiffs a ton, but also has 90th Percentile batted ball stats in just about every category.
But the one thing that Cruz does that Walker does not? Command the zone.
He’s improved his chase rate from 24 to 25, in 25 he was 88th Percentile in Walk Rate, and now he’s swinging at a career high meatball rate and finally pulling the ball in the air at an above league average rate.
Those are much more indicative statistics that this could continue than Walker
Verdict: REAL
—
Awards Awareness
Over the last couple weeks I’ve only given out 1 Awards pick that wasn’t in my annual predictions column:
Mason Miller NL Cy Young at 100-1 which now presides at 30-1.
So I thought I’d take a look at the board and make a few calls on prices I think are worth a little sprinkle if that’s your speed.
AL MVP: It’s extremely hard for a DH to win the award, but Ben Rice 35-1 is far too long. He’s got a 1.256 OPS so far, and I think he could put up freaky numbers all year.
AL Cy Young: Who am I if I don’t stick to my guns on Jose Soriano 20-1? He’s pitching like an ace, and the underlying stuff is nasty
AL Rookie of the Year: I gave out Kevin mcGonigle preseason, and I think I’m sticking with that. But the +300 spot isn’t too tantalizing right now. There’s no long shot worth it right now
NL MVP: Cruz at 65-1 is tantalizing for a guy who could go 30-50, but the best value on the board right now is Drake Baldwin 50-1. He’s on the only team that hasn’t lost a series yet in the Braves, he plays a premium position well, and he’s gonna dominate his position class in counting stats
NL Cy Young: Not too late to ride Mason Miller but relievers at 30-1 is a far tougher sell. Nolan McLean’s stuff is FAR too good to be hanging 55-1 right now.
NL Rookie of the Year: Pay the juice on Sal Stewart +230. He’s winning it. Consider my shot called. If you want a fun one, his teammate Rhett Lowder is the best value at 40-1 but he ain’t winning
—
Is Anyone Good?
While slightly less existential than the question implies it simply must be asked right now. Is anyone in the AL East good? I was pretty sure the Yankees were, but then this week happened. Let’s dive in
T-1st Tampa Bay Rays (8-7)
The fact that T-1st comes with a record of 8-7 is a disgusting notion. But at least the Rays are actually playing winning baseball right now. They just swept the Yankees and each game was decided by 2 or fewer runs.
They’re still a -10 in run differential and have allowed the 3rd most runs in baseball to opposing teams.
But at least Chandler Simpson is doing exactly what he needs to. He’s batting .385 and tied for the MLB lead with 20 hits thus far and already has 6 swiped bags.
He’s tied with his teammate Yandy Diaz who has been on a tear to open the season
They have the opportunity to gain some ground on the pack with a series against the White Sox upcoming
T-1st New York Yankees (8-7)
Well as I’m sure you just read in the last snippet, the Yankees got swept by the Rays, and lost 2 to the A’s prior, good for a 5 game losing streak
Outside of Ben Rice, who is certifiably MASHING with a 1.272 OPS in the L7 days — just about nobody in this lineup is hitting right now.
Even Judge has a .500s OPS in the L7, and he’s top 3 in the lineup in that stretch.
Schlittler is looking a little more human and the bullpen isn’t lights out.
I’m sure they’ll figure it out soon.
T-1st Baltimore Orioles (8-7)
After a 4-2 week, it can be said that the Orioles took care of business this week. Winning both the White Sox and Giants series is expected of a possible postseason team and they’re finally looking a little bit like one
Gunnar Henderson has finally joined the party after a lackluster first week, Taylor Ward is just a hitting machine, and their bullpen has been extremely serviceable in the L7.
The stakes raise a bit this week with the DBacks and Guards this week. Time to see if they’re for real
T-4th Toronto Blue Jays (6-9)
It’s harder to find a colder team in baseball right now, because… well… there isn’t one.
They’re tied for an MLB worst 2-8 over their L10, and it can’t be blamed on the schedule, as many of those games have come against the Twins, White Sox, and Rockies
They’re having far too many blow up innings on the bump and they have the 2nd worst run differential in baseball.
This team needs someone to pull them out of a funk, but even a .940 OPS week for Vladdy Jr isn’t doing them much good.
And it doesn’t get easier, they’ve got a Brewers and Dbacks road trip this week
T-4th Boston Red Sox (6-9)
It was an inarguably good week for the Red Sox. They took both series from NL Central opponents after whooping the Cardinals over the weekend.
They’ve broken even on run differential for the season after a dysmal start
While Roman Anthony hasn’t been very good this year, they’ve gotten a breakout from Yoshida over the L7 to help ease that pain. On top of Wilyer Abreu keeping up a hot start to 2026.
Sonny Gray has had some bounce back performances and Crochet continues to do Crochet things.
The arrow is pointing up on the Red Sox with Twins and Tigers on the docket.
—
Odds and Ends
—
HELL YEAH, Welcome back Tommy
The league needed his grit, and after dropping 5 straight the Mets need a shot in the arm from the ol blind bat.
—
In 2 ends of the broadcasting spectrum, the Pirates pulled off a perfect tribute to the Master’s intro while the Red Sox… well… they had only one camera working for a larger part of the broadcast than they probably care to admit.
—
Nothing better than Big Naturals across the chest
Have a great day everybody