Cup of Coffee Sunday, April 5, 2026
Due
Up
⚾ Lead Off
Walk the Walk
🔜 On Deck
Bounceback Bets
⏳ In the Hole
Contagion
The Morning Baseball Newsletter

Walk the Walk

For the last 3 seasons nobody in baseball could really explain why Jordan Walker wasn’t hitting. He was a physical freak, with an imposing frame, the highest percentile of bat speed, and top 10% exit velos.

But it wasn’t until this season that he has ever put it together. And now we have this:

So why didn’t he hit? In the past 2 seasons in around 500 MLB AB’s Walker was a .210 hitter with an OPS barely eclipsing .600.

Walker never pulled the ball in the air. The last 2 seasons he has only had a Pull Air% of 11.2% (MLB Avg ~17%). Power is generated to the pull side for most hitters, and Walker wasn’t doing that. Simple fix, right?

Well what if I told you Walkers pulled in the air rate is DOWN early this season? Because it is. It’s down to 5.9%. But in this small sample of the season Walker has started hitting the ball the OTHER WAY — in the air. His FB% is up from it’s normal ~23% to 35% right now. His Oppo-Air % has never eclipsed even 19%. Right now it is 23.5%. Same with Centerfield Air %, a typical 22% is up to 29.4%.

He’s added a natural loft to his swing and he’s reaping the benefits now. He’s maintaining his exit velos, but he’s putting the ball in the air — naturally, and unforced — away from his body. Elite stuff.

Bounceback Bets

I saw this great graphic above and figured I’d take a dive on which of these Top 12 would i bet on to get back on track the most.

After doing some digging I will present the 3 honorable mention cases and then present my favorite. Lets dive in:

HM 3: Josh Naylor

He’s always had middling zone control. He he chases, but he’s still walking and avoiding K’s. He’s just not getting the ball in the air right now. He’s a contact guy hitting suboptimal pitches

I still think Naylor will find an equalibrium because of how good his bat to ball is, but bottom tier swing speeds in an aging and soft body is why he’s lowest on the Honorable Mentions.

HM 2: Brent Rooker

Rooker is a beast. 6’3 225 brick shit house with an advanced knowledge of himself and his swing.

Rooker right now has crept back into his danger zone — insane chase rates, bottom 10 percentile right now. He’s falling into old habits and not getting his pitch.

He still has a 90th percentile barrel rate and right around top quartile swing speeds. But he’s whiffing at an ALARMING rate. Literally bottom percentile in whiff rate. That’s why he’ll stay lower.

HM 1: Kyle Manzardo

Manzardo is a relatively unassuming guy. He hits too many ground balls, he has unimpressive swing speeds — but when he does get the ball in the air he’s getting it to his power zones to the pull side.

He has ~75th percentile Barrel rates, hard hit%, and exit velo.

The ONLY reason he’s not my guy? He swings and misses too much (and strikes out) to be a great bet. His walks are down a smidge and he’s chasing a tad more.

My Pick: Spencer Torkelson

The former first overall pick had a breakout 2025 campaign. Racking up 31 HR and a .789 OPS.

His always impressive zone control — never below 75th percentile in Whiff rate, and usually a mainstay in the high 80’s — was aided by a sudden massive surge in LA Sweet Spot %. From 21st percentile all the way 90th.

Well guess what? It’s still in the 91st right now. He’s getting the ball in the air and swinging it hard. He’s just not getting overall contact quality right now.

I think he’s just missing and soon that pop will be back.

CONTAGION

Like in your favorite horror film, the zombie virus can afflict at various rates. Sometimes days, sometimes hours, sometimes mere minutes.

Well the White Sox are no different. They are a virus that can afflict it’s victims at variable rates — but it comes for us all. And it happens faster and worse each time.

In the first series — the White Sox were swept by the Brewers in 3 games. The Brewers lost he first game of their following series, only putting up 2 runs.

In the second series — the Marlins took 2 of 3 from the ChiSox. They’ve lost the first 2 games of their Yankees series, giving up 8 and 9 runs.

And now in their third — it’s happening quicker. The White Sox have won the first 2 games of the series and the Jays have looked AWFUL.

They got dragged down and in only game 2 of the series we see this sicko shit:

Lord help them in game 3. And God Bless the next victim of the Southside Virus.

Odds and Ends

Jo Adell put on his Superman cape in a way that we might never see again. An ALL TIME performance by the Angels RF

Things haven’t gone fantastic for the Giants as a whole. But Patrick Bailey is putting up an all time stinker of a season so far at the plate.

Hell has frozen over in the Bronx. Giancarlo Stanton stole a base.

Jake Burger has always been at the forefront. And instead of double fisting his name-sake, now he’s pioneering contact science

He does have a 177 OPS+ right now. So maybe this man is onto something. But catching pop ups might require something else.

The Orioles got walked off by the Pirates today, and it happened because Gunnar Henderson had a failed challenge, so the strike 3 pitch by Ryan Helsley couldn’t be challenged. Yorke took care of the rest:

Speaking of the Pirates — Presented without context:

Cummer loved Nutting. Serendipitous

Hoist the Cone

This man is a VISIONARY

Enjoy your day everybody!

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